How Share of Search is connected to Market Share
Share of Search (SoS) is a metric that measures a brand's share of all search queries related to a specific product or service category. As consumers increasingly turn to the internet to research and make purchasing decisions, tracking and analyzing search data has become crucial for measuring a company's success. SoS has emerged as a leading indicator of a company's market share, and there are several reasons why the two metrics are closely connected.
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The Research Behind the Share of Search and Market Share Correlation
The relationship between Share of Search and market performance isn't just theoretical - it's backed by extensive research and real-world data. Understanding this correlation is crucial for modern marketers who want to predict and influence market outcomes.
The IPA Think Tank Findings: 83% Correlation Revealed
The most significant research supporting the Share of Search methodology comes from Vizer Consulting's James Hankins for the IPA's new share of search think tank, which shows that share of search represents 83% of a brand's market share. The research was carried out across a range of sectors, countries and languages, though the ratio between share of search and share of market does vary by category and market.
This comprehensive study was based on 30 case studies representing 12 categories across seven countries. Importantly, the findings refer to correlations not causal relationships, but provide strong evidence for the predictive power of Share of Search as a market indicator.
SEMrush Research Validation
A study by SEMrush, a leading digital marketing platform, found that there is a strong correlation between SoS and market share in most categories, with an average correlation coefficient of 0.76. The study analyzed over 50,000 keywords across various industries and found that SoS was a more accurate predictor of market share than other metrics such as website traffic or social media engagement.
Academic and Industry Support
Research by Les Binet, Group Head of Effectiveness at Adam&EveDDB, shows a clear and accurate correlation between Share of Search and Market Share. Binet's work demonstrates that when a brand's share of search increases, market share is likely to soon increase, establishing SoS as a leading indicator of market performance.
Why Share of Search Predicts Market Share: The Four Key Connections
1. Consumer Demand Reflection
Share of Search serves as a direct indicator of overall demand for a product or service category. As consumers search for information and compare options, their search behavior directly reflects their purchase intent. The relationship is straightforward: the more people search for a particular product or service, the higher the likelihood of converting those searches into actual purchases.
Modern consumer behavior research shows that awareness leads to consideration, consideration leads to search, and search often leads to purchase. This makes search volume one of the most reliable leading indicators of market performance, explaining why SoS correlates so strongly with actual market share.
2. Brand Strength Assessment
SoS provides insight into a brand's relative strength in the market compared to competitors. Studies consistently show that brands with higher SoS are likely to have a larger market share, while those with lower SoS may be losing ground to their competitors.
This correlation exists because search behavior reflects genuine consumer interest and consideration. When consumers actively search for a brand, it indicates that the brand has achieved mindshare and is being considered for purchase decisions.
3. Predictive Market Intelligence
Perhaps most importantly, Share of Search acts as a leading indicator of future market performance. Unlike traditional market share data, which is retrospective and often delayed, SoS provides real-time insights into consumer behavior and market dynamics.
The predictive nature of SoS means that increases in search share often precede increases in market share by several weeks or months. This gives businesses a valuable window to anticipate market changes and adjust strategies accordingly.
4. Digital Consumer Behavior Alignment
The correlation between SoS and market share has strengthened as consumer behavior has shifted increasingly online. With Google handling close to 90% of all search queries worldwide, search behavior has become one of the most comprehensive measures of consumer interest across categories.
This digital shift means that virtually all purchase decisions now involve some form of online research, making search data an increasingly accurate reflection of overall market demand.
The Mechanism Behind the Correlation
Search as Intent Signal
The strong correlation between Share of Search and market share exists because search queries represent genuine purchase intent. Research indicates that brand search volume can be a strong indicator of brand health and future sales performance.
When someone searches for a brand or product category, they're expressing genuine interest and often demonstrating purchase intent. This direct connection between search behavior and purchase consideration explains why search share correlates so closely with actual market performance.
Market Demand Quantification
Share of Search effectively quantifies market demand in real-time. Studies show that SoS provides insight into market demand, which is a key driver of market share. Unlike surveys or focus groups, search data represents actual behavior rather than stated intentions.
Competitive Landscape Mapping
The correlation is particularly strong because SoS naturally accounts for competitive dynamics. When measuring Share of Search, you're not just looking at absolute search volume, but relative performance within a category. This relative measurement mirrors how market share itself is calculated, strengthening the correlation between the two metrics.
Conclusion
The correlation between Share of Search and market share, consistently demonstrated at 83% across multiple studies, represents one of the most reliable predictive relationships in modern marketing. This strong correlation exists because search behavior directly reflects consumer intent, market demand, and competitive dynamics.
The research consistently shows that Share of Search can form up to 83% of a brand's Share of Market, making it an invaluable metric for understanding and predicting market performance. While the relationship is correlational rather than causal, and can vary by category and market, the consistency of findings across different studies and geographies establishes SoS as a robust market indicator.
As digital behavior continues to dominate consumer decision-making processes, the correlation between how often people search for brands and how those brands perform in the market is likely to strengthen further. For marketers and business leaders, understanding this correlation provides a powerful tool for predicting market trends and measuring brand performance in real-time.
The 83% correlation between Share of Search and market share isn't just a statistical curiosity - it's a fundamental relationship that reflects how modern consumers discover, consider, and choose brands. By understanding and monitoring this correlation, businesses can gain unprecedented insight into their market position and future performance potential.
